The War Room #254 | Valentina Shevchenko vs Alexa Grasso | The Dan Hardy Breakdown Show

·12 min·1 clip

Dan Hardy explains why he initially counted out Alexa Grasso against champion Valentina Shevchenko, but sees a potential upset.

Dan Hardy opens the episode by introducing the UFC 285 co-main event for the women's flyweight title, with Valentina Shevchenko defending against Alexa Grasso. He admits initially counting out Grasso but acknowledges her determination and four-fight win streak. Hardy notes both fighters are 5'5" with equal reach, making physical attributes less decisive. He discusses Shevchenko's advantage as an embedded champion accustomed to five-round fights and championship pressure. Hardy analyzes Grasso's move up to flyweight, suggesting it improves her physicality and conditioning compared to her struggles at strawweight. He breaks down the tactical battle: Grasso must get into boxing range to use her tight punches, while Shevchenko will use kicks from distance and clinch work up close. Hardy explains Shevchenko's patient, decision-based style where she throws single shots and avoids recklessness. He reviews Shevchenko's nine-fight win streak, highlighting wins over opponents like Jessica Andrade and Lauren Murphy. Hardy introduces the concept that beating Shevchenko requires an 'X-Factor' fighter with reckless power, comparing to Matt Serra beating GSP. He questions if Grasso has that physicality or chaotic element. Hardy references Veronica on the PICS podcast being high on Grasso's chances but remains skeptical. He considers the possibility of an upset given recent MMA upsets but doubts Grasso can sustain the needed range management for 25 minutes. Hardy concludes the division would benefit from a new champion but thinks it's very difficult to dethrone Shevchenko without something spectacular.

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