What has Canada risked for a deal with China?

January 16, 2026·27 min·2 clips

Stephanie Carvin explains how China has used canola as a 'stick' to beat Canada in trade negotiations for three decades.

Canada wants more room to move. The guest reads the China agreement around EVs as a sign that Carney may not be counting on much from a renegotiated trade deal with the United States. That is the optimistic version. The host goes straight at the awkward part: Canada's bread is still buttered down south, and the United States may not be thrilled to see Canada making a deal with China. Seventy-five percent is not a small number. The guest answers with realism and a dry warning. The United States cannot simply be swapped out as Canada's main trading partner. Still, the numbers may be shifting. He cites a figure he says he read in The Economist: trade with the United States was 75 percent in 2024 and is now 67 percent. That matters, but it does not magically solve the problem. The guest says Canada should reduce its reliance on the United States, while staying clear-eyed about China. China has its own stick. Canola becomes the example of what happens when China decides to squeeze Canada through trade pressure. So diversification is not a love story. It is more like buying a bit of insurance from someone who has already shown they can make life difficult. The host keeps pulling it back to the practical choice. If a China deal annoys the United States, Canada has to weigh that against the chance that the U.S. deal may be weak anyway. Carney may simply be reading the room. The guest suggests he could be throwing caution to the wind because the U.S. deal may not improve much no matter what Canada does. That is not comforting, but it does explain why Canada might test other relationships even when none can replace the American market. The useful answer is blunt. Canada can lessen dependence on the United States, but anyone expecting China to save the day should remember how fast trade deals can fall apart.

As heard by us

A clear-eyed look at Canada's China trade bet, and why reducing U.S. dependence may mean taking on a different kind of risk.

Canada's China push comes across as less a clean trade win than a hard-nosed attempt to widen its options. The discussion frames the deal as a possible signal to Washington, especially if Ottawa sees little upside in another round of USMCA talks, while keeping the math firmly in…

Read the full review in PlayNext →

Why you'd press play

If you want the China trade question cut down to the real stakes, start here.

Read the full recommendation in PlayNext →

Listen to the show on

Apple Podcasts Spotify

Play clips from this episode More from Cost of Living (CBC)