Collecting Keys - Real Estate Investing Podcast · Mike DeHaan

EP 470 - Cash Flow Lies: How to Stress-Test Your Next Deal

December 16, 2025·39 min·3 clips

An apprentice ignored a master electrician to follow AI advice, causing a fire that burned down an entire building.

1. Collecting Keys episode 470 features hosts Mike DeHaan, Dan Austin, and Dylan Cook covering Federal Reserve policy, property taxes, and real estate operator mindset. 2. Mike DeHaan and Dan Austin are recurring hosts; Dylan Cook co-hosts and runs a real estate operator mastermind called Thunderdome. 3. The episode's core argument is that macro headwinds—Fed rate cuts, rising property taxes, stagnating rents—are eroding cash flow for buy-and-hold investors in ways many operators haven't fully priced in. 4. The hosts open with the news that the Fed cut rates 25 basis points, but Mike immediately clarifies that DSCR lending rates do not follow the Fed funds rate and that borrowers who asked him how much rates dropped were told 'zero.' 5. Dylan shares a clip of Jerome Powell describing the housing market as 'kind of cooked,' which the hosts say is unusually direct language from a typically guarded Fed chair. 6. Mike explains the Fed is expanding its balance sheet by $40 billion per month in short-term T-bills only—no mortgage-backed securities—representing a run rate of roughly 60% of the entire 2008 TARP program ($800 billion). 7. He argues that primary dealers earning 3.5-4% lending overnight to the Fed have little incentive to pass liquidity to consumers, meaning the rate cut is unlikely to meaningfully loosen lending conditions. 8. Dan provides context that since 2014, China and Saudi Arabia have purchased less and less of newly issued US Treasury debt, with the Federal Reserve stepping in to buy the difference. 9. The conversation shifts to affordability: Mike notes Target shelves were bare the same week affordability concerns were dominating headlines, questioning whether consumer behavior reflects actual financial stress. 10. Dylan's Spokane, Washington data point—median household income of $70,000, one of the five most expensive states—is offered as a representative working-class market. 11. Washington State's B&O tax (1% of top-line revenue) and a law requiring tipped workers to receive full minimum wage before tips are cited as reasons restaurant meals in Spokane now cost $25 for a hamburger. 12. Mike reveals his triplex, which cash-flowed $2,500 per month after a 2021 refinance, has generated no income for two years as property tax increases consumed the entire margin. 13. He dropped asking rents from $1,700 to $1,400, tried to sell the property at a $100K price reduction, and received no offers. 14. Mike estimates his total portfolio pays close to $100,000 per year in property taxes, roughly 70% of which funds what he calls underperforming public schools in Washington. 15. Florida's proposal to abolish residential property taxes is discussed; the hosts note it applies only to homestead and would primarily benefit retirees, likely drawing New York transplants. 16. A debate on Trump savings accounts for children covers the $1,000 seed accounts, Michael Dell's $6.25 billion donation to the program, and the risk that account managers could direct all funds to favored investments. 17. Dylan draws a parallel between Trump accounts and Biden's student debt relief proposal, arguing both use taxpayer dollars to benefit specific constituencies. 18. Dylan's mastermind Thunderdome session revealed operators working 2-6 hours per day while attributing stagnant growth to market conditions rather than effort. 19. Dylan argues replacing a $70K W-2 income through a business is achievable once fundamentals are understood, but earning $500K-$1M annually requires full effort until the operator has built sufficient leverage at the $100M scale. 20. Listeners who are buy-and-hold real estate investors tracking macro conditions, or operators in early-stage businesses trying to scale past W-2 replacement income, will find this episode directly applicable.

As heard by us

A blunt warning that a property can look solid until taxes, rents, and a stalled sale reshape the math.

Collecting Keys starts with a broad, skeptical opening before settling into a plain accounting of one of Mike DeHaan's own properties with Dan Austin and Dylan Cook.

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Why you'd press play

When rising property taxes and softer rents can erase a rental’s cash flow even after a refinance.

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