Sal Mercogliano host of "What's Going on With Shipping?" on YouTube #1338

·52 min·5 clips

Sal Mercogliano explains how an obscure insurance issue locked up global shipping after Iran's attacks.

Host Mike interviews Sal Mercogliano, a maritime historian and YouTube creator, about the escalating shipping crisis in the Strait of Hormuz. Mercogliano recounts how his channel grew from 90,000 subscribers in May 2023 to over 630,000, driven by events like the Ever Given blockage and Houthi attacks. The conversation focuses on the February 28th Iranian attacks that triggered the current standstill. Mercogliano reveals he was asked by the National Security Council to explain the insurance mechanism that froze shipping, where rates jumped from 0.25% to 1.5%. He describes the shift from an insurance problem to a security crisis, with Iranian drones and unmanned surface vessels attacking ships at anchor. Mercogliano details the toll booth system Iran has set up, allowing Chinese and allied ships to pass through Iranian waters for likely payment. He compares the Houthi threat in the Red Sea, which has subsided, to the more severe Iranian threat in the Persian Gulf, a cul-de-sac with no alternative routes. Mercogliano criticizes the U.S. administration for not having a plan to keep traffic flowing from day one, arguing that military degradation of Iran is insufficient against asymmetric drone threats. He outlines the economic consequences: oil over $100 a barrel, gas prices up 90 cents a gallon, and potential fertilizer shortages affecting global food production. Mercogliano estimates it will take months to resolve the backlog, with every day of disruption requiring a week of recovery. He discusses how this crisis will alter global trade patterns, prompting shifts away from Persian Gulf dependence and towards larger container ships bypassing the Suez Canal. The episode concludes with Mercogliano expressing concern that policymakers underestimated the shipping system's fragility and the inflationary impacts of prolonged disruption.

As heard by us

A grounded shipping discussion about Hormuz, drone threats, and the strategic cost of stalled traffic.

Shipping is treated here as a problem of momentum, not just movement. In conversation with Sal Mercogliano, the Iran-Iraq tanker war becomes a way into a sharper point about the Strait of Hormuz: when commercial traffic stops, getting it moving again can become a strategic…

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Why you'd press play

Press play when you want to feel the Strait of Hormuz as an inertia problem: once traffic stops, getting it moving again is the hard part.

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