Markets are buying the idea that the Iran conflict could end soon, driving a broad rally ahead of Trump's speech.
1. Cierre de Mercados on Radio Inter Economía covers the April 1, 2026 European market close with European equities up broadly 2-3% amid speculation that the Iran-US-Israel war could be resolved imminently.
2. The host and analysts include Roberto Scholtes of Singular Bank, Luciana Tapp of AFI, and José Basagoiti of TradingPro as main market commentators.
3. Iran's Foreign Minister states Iran seeks to end the conflict with the US and Israel, while Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesman simultaneously calls Trump's claim that Iran requested a ceasefire 'false and unfounded.'
4. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard warns the Strait of Hormuz will not open to enemies; the Wall Street Journal reports the UAE is prepared to join a US-led coalition to force the waterway open.
5. Fed Reserve Bank of St. Louis president Alberto Musalem says the interest rate remains appropriate while the Fed balances employment and inflation risks, but warns he now sees more risk of persistent inflation due to geopolitical developments.
6. BYD reported a 65% increase in overseas sales driven by rising oil prices boosting EV demand, though total deliveries fell nearly 20% extending a seventh consecutive month of decline.
7. European airline stocks surged: Lufthansa +7.49%, Air France +8.18%, International Airlines Group +4.75%, Ryanair +3.39%, all responding to Trump's suggestion of a two-to-three-week conflict resolution.
8. Singular Bank strategist Roberto Scholtes says markets are choosing the most optimistic scenario, and the broad simultaneous gains across sectors reflect indiscriminate ETF and futures-driven buying rather than fundamental re-rating.
9. TradingPro's José Basagoiti calls the market rally a 'culebrón' and describes Trump, Bessent, and Powell as a 'tridente' coordinating to calm markets, while noting the Nasdaq had fallen 10 of 11 prior weeks.
10. Basagoiti specifically questions why 10,000 ground troops are being deployed if negotiations are genuinely going well, telling listeners: 'los políticos tienden a mentir, lo hacen de manera maravillosa.'
11. The IBEX 35 fell 7% in March — its first decline since June 2025 and largest since September 2022 — erasing 14,800 million euros of market capitalisation from the Iran war's outbreak on February 28.
12. Repsol was IBEX's best performer in March, gaining 29% and adding 6,220 million euros of market cap, while Indra dropped 24% amid a public conflict between chairman Ángel Escribano and the state holding SEPI.
13. On April 1, Indra's president called an extraordinary board meeting at 5 pm to present his resignation; shares fell 7% on the news before recovering to close +2.4%.
14. The April 1 IBEX 35 session closed at 17,580 points (+3.11%), with ACS as the day's best performer at +7% and only Repsol (-5.23%) and Enagás (-1.28%) closing negative.
15. Technical analyst Javier Alfayate of Grupo Link recommended the FTSE 100 for commodity-producer exposure, with specific buy calls on Glencore (stop at 465 pence) and Centrica as energy plays.
16. UK Q1 2026 wind energy data shows wind supplied 45% of British electricity — up from 33% a year earlier — with measured wind output up 33% year-on-year to 33,000 megawatts per half-hour.
17. UK average electricity price of 89 euros per megawatt-hour in Q1 2026 compares to 101 in Germany, 137 in Italy, and 70 in France, a reversal from the pre-2022 period when UK prices consistently exceeded Germany's.
18. The segment contrasts the UK renewable model with the US under Trump, where renewable investment fell 36% in the first half of 2025, representing a $20,500 million reduction.
19. Manuel Velázquez of ERAC Group explains that transport and fuel-intensive industries — airlines, shipping, road logistics, petrochemicals — face the fastest margin compression from rising oil prices, with transport alone representing 32% of EU final energy consumption.
20. The episode will suit investors in Spanish or European equities, energy sector watchers, or listeners tracking the market impact of the Iran-US conflict and renewable energy economics.
