Wall street Today - 10 04

·15 min·1 clip

Markets are trying to understand if the pause between the USA and Iran is actually working, influencing oil, the dollar, and US indexes.

The daily program Wall Street Today, presented by Forbes Kazakhstan and Business FM, opens by framing the central market question: not the existence of a US-Iran pause, but its practical viability. Host Ilyas Kurmanbek explains that markets initially reacted positively to signs of de-escalation, with S&P 500 and Nasdaq showing slight gains. This optimism was based on the expectation that lower oil prices would ease inflation pressure and reduce the risk of aggressive Federal Reserve rate hikes. However, the tone shifted when Reuters reported an Iranian attack on a Saudi oil pipeline just hours after the pause announcement, reducing production and transport capacity significantly. The market's brief euphoria over stocks was limited as oil prices began to rise again. A diplomatic contrast emerged with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's statement about wanting direct negotiations with Lebanon, offering a rare positive signal that could temporarily weaken pressure on oil. The episode then shifts to economic implications, citing IMF head Krystalina Georgieva's expectation that the war could cause an additional $20-50 billion in demand for fund assistance, with the World Bank ready to mobilize $20-25 billion. This indicates the economic damage is transitioning from market volatility to longer-term pressure on growth, supply chains, and confidence. The financial markets section describes a harsh picture where oil, gold, the dollar, and freight are reacting to the same risk premium. It highlights a suspicious $950 million oil price deal made just before the pause announcement, raising questions about potential insider trading, though no direct evidence is cited. The corporate news segment notes a shift from hype to infrastructure and operational stability, with examples like China allowing state oil companies to use commercial reserves. A detailed case study focuses on Air Astana, analyzed by partner Tennis Capital Investment Banking, revealing that despite revenue growth to $1.45 billion and high passenger traffic, net profit fell sharply to $13.6 million due to 22 unplanned engine losses from the global Pratt & Whitney crisis. The episode concludes by connecting global tensions to Kazakhstan, noting the tenge's sensitivity to external shocks while highlighting local market developments like the launch of the first ETFs on the KASI index and bond issuances by the Kazakhstan Stability Fund.

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