Buenos Días Mercado · El Conquistador FM

Buenos Días Mercado | Juan José Lavín, Willy Díaz y Pepe Arias | 09-04-2026

·43 min·3 clips

Hosts discuss Iran's demands in the Hormuz Strait conflict, including a $2 million toll per ship, as oil prices rise.

1. Buenos Días Mercado broadcasts its Thursday April 9, 2026 edition from Radio El Conquistador, with hosts Juan José Lavín, Willy Díaz, and Pepe Arias. 2. The episode focuses on three interconnected topics: the fragile Iran-US ceasefire negotiations, the technical drivers of Chile's 1% March IPC surprise, and the macro implications of Chile's inflation path. 3. Opening market conditions: Asian markets open down, the Chilean peso opened at 899, WTI crude oil trades at $99.78 (up ~4–5% from the prior day), near the psychological $100 threshold. 4. Juan José Lavín reads Iran's eight-point counter-demands: Hormuz will open gradually under total Iranian control with a $2 million per-ship toll (half shared with Oman), Israel must halt attacks on Hezbollah, a permanent ceasefire must be jointly declared, the US and Israel must indemnify Iran for all war destruction, and all US sanctions including nuclear enrichment must be lifted. 5. Hosts describe these demands as 'pedir con el tejo pasado' — wildly beyond what any US or Israeli government could accept internally — making a deal look very difficult. 6. Lavín notes a strategic complication: Iran's Revolutionary Guard is now acting semi-autonomously, having lost most of its central leadership to targeted strikes, meaning there may be no single authority capable of negotiating and enforcing a deal. 7. Willy Díaz explains that Chile's March IPC printed 1% rather than the expected 0.5% because the INE methodology compares first-day and last-day prices: the March 26 MEPCO fuel adjustment raised gasoline from CLP 1,100 to CLP 1,500–1,600, appearing only in the last-day reading. 8. Because April's first-day reading already incorporates the fuel increase, Willy argues April's IPC should not necessarily be higher than March's — the price shock has already been baked in — assuming no further escalation. 9. Pepe Arias adds that roughly 79% of the IPC basket (food, beverages, clothing, restaurants, household goods) reprices quickly, while rent, school fees, and services are UF-indexed and move more slowly — limiting how much of the supply-chain fuel impact registers immediately. 10. Pepe explains that combustibles effectively move Chile's CPI twice: directly as a basket item (4% of index) and indirectly through transport (15% of index) and food (where transport is 15–20% of cost) — meaning fuel changes can move up to 40% of the total index. 11. Pepe's 12-month inflation trajectory: November 2025 at 3.4%, January 2026 at 2.8%, February at 2.4% — a welcome declining trend — then March's 1.0% print pushed the 12-month figure back to 2.8%. 12. Pepe identifies four macro consequences: the Banco Central de Chile will likely pause its expected 2026 rate cuts; the exchange rate will remain volatile (890–920 range); UF-indexed household costs rise automatically; and there is no fiscal room for counter-cyclical spending. 13. The government has already said it will not use reserve mechanisms to subsidize MEPCO (fuel price stabilization), so the full price increase has passed through to consumers with no fiscal buffer. 14. Pepe estimates the most likely scenario: inflation peaks around 3.5% (not 4%) with a war-end resolution bringing WTI back to the 80–85 dollar range, which he describes as a 'reasonable normalization' given infrastructure destruction. 15. He flags two historical index data points to watch: August 2025 at 0.1% and December 2025 at -0.2% will soon roll out of the 12-month window and likely be replaced by higher 2026 readings, pushing the rolling figure higher. 16. WTI crude trades at $99.78, up 5% on the day and up 18% over the month, after oscillating between approximately $90 and $110 during the ceasefire period; copper is steady at $5.70 per ounce. 17. Pepe contrasts copper at $5.70 with the 1980s when Chilean mining industry participants 'prayed and had a party' if copper reached $1 per pound — illustrating the structural transformation of Chile's economy over four decades. 18. The hosts briefly commemorate nine months since the death of their colleague Tomás, calling him 'dear Tomás' and noting he would likely have had a strong opinion on the day's Valdivia university violence incident. 19. The episode mentions a violent student protest at the Universidad de Valdivia involving an attack on academic Jimena Nicolau, with hosts calling for the expulsion of student leaders and withdrawal of state subsidies from those convicted. 20. The episode suits Chilean businesspeople, economists, and investors who follow daily macroeconomic data, monetary policy, and geopolitical risk; those wanting political neutrality will encounter consistently pro-market framing and sharp criticism of student protesters.

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