Buenos Días Mercado · El Conquistador FM

Buenos Días Mercado | Juan José Lavín, Willy Díaz y Pepe Arias | 01-04-2026

·47 min·3 clips

Trump's provocation leads Iran to offer talks, sending oil prices plunging below $100 in minutes.

1. Buenos Días Mercado broadcasts its Wednesday April 1, 2026 edition from Conquistador radio, with hosts Juan José Lavín, Willy Díaz, and Pepe Arias. 2. The April 1 episode focuses on three major topics: the Iran-US conflict's potential resolution and oil price impact, Chile's worse-than-expected February IMASEC print, and Pepe Arias's analysis of illegal commerce in Chile. 3. The episode opens with anticipation of the February IMASEC publication, with analyst expectations ranging from 0.3% to 1.3% — a range hosts find suspiciously wide and analytically useless. 4. Willy Díaz reports that Trump's announcement of intent to withdraw from the Iran conflict within two to three weeks prompted Iran's president to signal openness to negotiations, sending WTI crude from $104 to below $100 within hours. 5. All 27 global stock markets on Willy's tracking screen simultaneously turned green — including India, China, and Russia — a sight he says he had not seen in a long time. 6. Willy and Pepe discuss Trump's political calculus: US midterm elections are in November, US fuel prices have risen from $3 to $4, and sustaining an open-ended conflict with persistent inflation would cost Trump the midterms. 7. The hosts agree Trump must exit the conflict as a declared winner — meaning any ceasefire deal will include the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, which they call an 'absolute fact' not subject to communication spin. 8. Juan José Lavín describes Chile's economy as a swimmer on a diving board, ready to jump, held back by external war-driven fuel price shocks since late February. 9. The February IMASEC came in at -0.3%, missing the low end of analyst forecasts (+0.3%), driven by goods production falling 3.7%, manufacturing 3.6%, and weaker-than-expected fruticulture and fishing output. 10. Services grew 1.6% and retail grew 0.2%, which hosts say 'saved the asparagus' — preventing an even worse headline number. 11. Lavín notes that President Boric's government ends with an average unemployment rate of 8.4% and a negative IMASEC, and warns that the new Kast government should not expect immediate recovery due to economic policy lags. 12. Pepe Arias's secondary topic is the Cámara Nacional de Comercio Servicios y Turismo's national survey on illegal commerce and contraband. 13. The survey finds that 78% of nationally representative respondents understand that illegal street commerce involves organized crime structures — warehouses, distribution networks, and organized contraband — up 5 percentage points from the 2024 survey. 14. 64% of Chileans say they reject illegal commerce in their vicinity; 92% want government action to reduce it; yet one in three admits to purchasing from illegal vendors, citing lower prices and convenience. 15. Pepe names this a moral dichotomy: high normative condemnation coexists with frequent participation, and 54% of respondents attribute illegal commerce to unemployment — expressing sympathy for the sellers. 16. Illegal commerce is estimated to represent 3–5% of Chilean GDP, generating $3–5 billion annually in uncollected taxes; including downstream economic effects, total damage is $10–15 billion. 17. OECD estimates Latin America overall at approximately 20% of GDP in illegal commerce, making Chile's 3–5% relatively better but still structurally significant. 18. Hosts argue illegal commerce cannot be solved by municipal enforcement alone — it requires coordinated action from customs, tax authorities, and anti-organized-crime units, because displacing street vendors from one commune only relocates the problem. 19. Televisión Nacional is mentioned briefly: it reduced its 2025 losses to CLP 15 billion from CLP 18 billion in 2024, which hosts describe as 'reduced losses but still substantial.' 20. The episode suits businesspeople and economics-focused Chileans interested in daily market briefings, macroeconomic data, and policy analysis from a center-right perspective; those seeking political neutrality will find the hosts' framing consistently pro-market and critical of the Boric government.

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