British General Elections podcast · Tim Smith

2024 Election special part 4

·30 min·3 clips

Polling averages show Labour at 40%, Conservatives just above 20%, Reform at 17%, Lib Dems 11%, and Greens 6%.

4th of July is only days away, and Tim Smith uses this fourth election special to step out of the show's usual historical lane. Rishi Sunak's surprise early election gives him a reason to look at the campaign as it is happening, and the result is brisk, careful, and useful. He starts with Conservative unpopularity, especially the collapse in economic trust after Liz Truss's autumn 2022 experiment and the damage still hanging around from it. Then he turns to Labour's slight dip. Smith treats it as roughly one point, not a meltdown, and separates Liberal Democrat tactical lending from weaker turnout in safe Labour seats. That matters. If the movement mostly comes from Labour voters staying home where Labour is already likely to win, the national vote share may move without changing many seats. Tax is the tougher question. If voters are taking a second look at Labour's tax policy, that wobble could bite harder, though Smith says it is too early to call. Wednesday is the checkpoint. He expects a rush of final polls because every polling house will want a late number before election day. House effects do plenty here. The combined Conservative and Reform share sits around 36 or 37 in many polls, often with Conservatives near 20 and Reform near 17, but the spread is wide enough to matter. JL Partners has the combined figure at 40, Whitestone Insights at 39, while the transcript has Servation at 32 and YouGov at 35 with Liberal Democrats high at 15. The right-of-centre split is still messy. Smith's point is that this is not random noise, since the way firms handle reluctant voters may affect the final picture. He leaves the ending open: maybe another Tuesday or Wednesday summary, maybe not, then asks listeners for feedback and ratings. It is a late campaign briefing about small vote-share moves, tactical choices, and polling methods, and how they might show up on election night.

As heard by us

A careful election briefing that keeps pressing on the numbers instead of treating them as settled.

Tim Smith's fourth special looks ahead to the 2024 election just days before polling, revisiting why the Conservatives remain so unpopular on the economy, how Liz Truss still hangs over the party, and why first-past-the-post may help Labour turn votes into seats more efficiently…

Read the full review in PlayNext →

Why you'd press play

A final polling walk-through before July 4, focused on the caveats that matter most this week.

Read the full recommendation in PlayNext →

Listen to the show on

Apple Podcasts Spotify

Play clips from this episode More from British General Elections podcast