Episode 295 - Bist du der nächste Dumme bei Bitcoin? Die Greater Fool Theory erklärt

·53 min·5 clips

Researchers created a worthless token that doubled in price each round to see if people would buy it purely on resale expectation.

In this episode of Bitcoin verstehen, hosts Jonas and Manuel reunite after a break to delve into the Greater Fool Theory and its relevance to Bitcoin. They begin by referencing a study conducted at the University of Innsbruck in 2024-2025, which examined how people behave when trading tokens with zero intrinsic value. The experiment involved participants bidding on a worthless token over multiple rounds, with the price doubling each time, to test if they would buy based solely on the expectation of resale. The hosts detail the study's setup, including variations with tiny probabilities of high payoffs and conditions of uncertainty. Results showed that participants often continued bidding despite knowing the token was worthless, confirming irrational behavior aligned with the Greater Fool Theory. Jonas and Manuel then connect these findings to Bitcoin, discussing how similar psychological drivers—like hope for massive profits and narrative-driven uncertainty—fuel speculative investment. They debate whether Bitcoin critics are correct in labeling it a greater fool asset, acknowledging that Bitcoin's price likely reflects a mix of genuine believers in its value (e.g., for global value transfer) and pure speculators buying to sell later. The conversation covers how social media and hype phases exacerbate these dynamics, creating a 'turbo mode' for speculative frenzy. They also compare Bitcoin to other assets like meme coins, NFTs, and stocks, noting that irrational bubbles can occur in any market. Throughout, the hosts emphasize that the Greater Fool Theory isn't inherently negative but rather a realistic part of Bitcoin's ecosystem, especially as it matures. They conclude by reflecting on personal perspectives, with Manuel noting that being perceived as a 'fool' by sellers doesn't matter if one assigns subjective value to Bitcoin.

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