Behind the Balance Sheet · Stephen Clapham's Podcast on Value Investing | Stockmarket Analysis | Equities

#48 The Independent Thinker - Dave Iben on Contrarian Value, Commodities & Emerging Markets

·1 hr 3 min·4 clips

Platinum has moved to a 70% discount to gold, even though many mines are losing money.

1. Behind the Balance Sheet #48 centers on Dave Iben’s view of contrarian value, commodities, and emerging markets. 2. Dave Iben of Copernic Asset Management joins as guest, while the Behind the Balance Sheet host probes his process, his timing, and his UK research trip. 3. The episode asks why Iben thinks value has “turned the corner” after years of lagging behind big tech and passive flows. 4. Iben says he did not grow up wanting to be an investor and first planned to become a veterinarian at UC Davis. 5. He links the name Copernic Asset Management to Copernicus, because both trusted their own analysis against “the madness of crowds.” 6. He describes his style as independent thought rather than simply buying what people hate. 7. Iben says his firm hunts “everywhere,” using screens, a dream list, and a global all-cap, all-sector, all-country search set. 8. He says the portfolio is now a bit over 100 names, with 70% outside the index universe because indexing concentrates money in the largest stocks. 9. He explains that valuation is industry-specific, comparing Microsoft with cash-flow metrics and BHP with resource metrics such as book value and commodity prices. 10. For cyclical businesses, he says he normalizes prices, looks at equilibrium levels, and avoids using recent spot prices as the sole guide. 11. On uranium, he says a move from 20 to 60 can still be attractive even if it takes 7 to 10 years. 12. He contrasts that patience with investors who preferred 10-year bonds at 2.5% because they wanted a catalyst. 13. On platinum, he says the metal used to trade at a premium to gold and now sits at about a 70% discount. 14. He says most platinum producers are losing money at current prices around 1,100 and that the economics “can’t last.” 15. He links the earlier weakness to EV expectations, then notes that hybrids still use platinum and palladium. 16. He argues that platinum could also benefit if it increasingly becomes a monetary metal like gold and silver. 17. The tone is analytical and conversational, with back-and-forth debate over platinum, gold, the dollar, and portfolio construction. 18. Iben repeatedly answers with process details, numbers, and examples rather than broad slogans. 19. Value investors, commodity watchers, and long-term contrarians would likely get the most from this discussion. 20. Listeners looking for a short, trend-chasing market chat may find it too process-heavy.

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