Geopolítica, avanço da safra e pecuária firme marcam a semana | BBcast Agro - 23/02/2026
February 23, 2026·5 min
The episode begins by outlining the main factors expected to move commodity markets for soy, corn, coffee, and fat ox during the week. Traders are positioning themselves ahead of the U.S. Outlook Forum, which will release the first unofficial projections for the U.S. 26-27 harvest. Geopolitical conflicts in multiple countries could generate oil price movements that would reflect on grain quotations. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency is sending biofuel mixture target proposals to President Donald Trump for 2026, with potential quota increases that could strengthen grain demand. In Argentina, protests against labor reforms raise the possibility of strikes that could paralyze the soy complex and affect farelo quotations. Internal prices are expected to remain stable in the short term with a low bias in the medium term due to high supply. Next week's market behavior will be directly conditioned by numbers from the U.S. Outlook Forum. Analysts expect a reduction in U.S. corn area for the 26-27 harvest, which could theoretically increase supply and pressure prices. In Brazil, Conab data shows the corn harvest has reached 14.9% of total area, with Rio Grande do Sul leading at 49% harvested. Second harvest planting has reached 32.2% of total area, led by Mato Grosso at 52.7%. With producers focused on harvesting and planting, trade is slowing and creating a locked market that sustains prices. The 26th harvest entry should cause new lows in futures markets. Climate conditions are becoming more favorable for 2026 Brazilian coffee production despite irregular rain forecasts, putting downward pressure on coffee quotations. Analysts see no factors that could increase coffee quotations, maintaining a fall trend for 2026. The fat ox market ended last week with higher negotiation volume and good liquidity. Harvest scales remain short, reflecting continued supply restrictions for ready animals. The beehive market shows reduced average animal weight compared to the same period last year, potentially indicating lower reproductive matrix availability and cost pressures. Both internal and external demand remain firm, supporting fat ox prices with negotiations reaching around R$350 per pound in some markets.
