BB Private Talks - Janeiro/26 - O que esperar dos mercados financeiros em 2026 | BB

·26 min·2 clips

Richard Ferreira from BB Private explains how the US invasion of Venezuela and global inflation data will shape investment portfolios in 2026.

The episode begins with host Richard Ferreira introducing the first BB Private Talks of 2026, focusing on connecting global events to Brazilian investment strategies. He opens with the recent US invasion of Venezuela and capture of President Nicolás Maduro, noting Venezuela's 303 billion barrels of oil reserves and potential OPEC influence shifts. The discussion moves to US economic indicators, highlighting repressed data due to the government shutdown, with November inflation decelerating to 2.7% and core inflation at 1.6%. US labor market data shows a negative job creation of 105,000 in October and a recovery to 65,000 in November, but unemployment rising to 4.6%. The Fed cut rates by 25 basis points to 3.5-3.75%, with expectations of a pause and resumption in the second half of 2026 under a new Fed president. Japan's Bank of Japan raised rates to 0.75%, the highest in 30 years, impacting global carry trade operations. Global stock markets saw volatility, with Broadcom's disappointing earnings causing a sell-off, but recovery followed. The 'Magnificent 7' tech stocks returned 332% since January 2023, compared to 56% for the other 493 S&P 500 companies, debunking bubble concerns due to strong cash generation and profit margins over 30%. In Brazil, economic activity is decelerating with a projected 2.2% GDP growth, but unemployment hit a record low of 5.2%. Inflation is within target at 4.41%, but projections are distant from the center, leading to Central Bank caution. Market bets show a 70% probability of interest rate maintenance in January, with cuts expected from March. Brazilian stock markets rose 34% in 2025, driven by foreign investors. Allocation recommendations include a positive view on emerging market and US equities, reduction in post-fixed papers, and shifts to pre-fixed and inflation-linked bonds in Brazil.

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