Armenian News Network - Groong: Week In Review Podcast · Armenian News Network / Groong

Pietro Shakarian - Iran War, Armenia and Russia, June Parliamentary Elections | Ep 529, Apr 4, 2026

April 4, 2026·1 hr 1 min·5 clips

Historian Pietro Shakarian analyzes how Trump's war with Iran is reshaping Armenia's security and the Caucasus.

The episode opens with hosts Asbed and Hovik introducing Dr. Pietro Shakarian, a historian of Russia and the Soviet Union lecturing at the American University of Armenia in Yerevan. The central topic is Trump's April 1st address on the Iran war, which Shakarian calls confusing and full of shifting goalposts — the operation originally projected to last four days has already been extended multiple times. Shakarian argues Trump sincerely believed Iran would collapse like Venezuela once its supreme leader was removed, an assumption he says reveals total ignorance of Iran's institutionalized governmental structure dating to 1979. He is critical of Pete Hegseth and other administration officials, noting Douglas McGregor has called for Trump to fire everyone around him. The hosts discuss European fractures, with Spain and Italy refusing US overflight rights while figures like Kaja Kallas remain loyal to Trump. Belgium and Hungary are raising the idea of easing EU sanctions on Russia given energy vulnerability now that Hormuz is closed. Shakarian reviews Javad Zarif's Foreign Affairs article, noting Zarif argues Iran has the upper hand and proposes a nuclear-for-sanctions deal. He describes the piece as significant for appearing in the leading US foreign policy journal but questions whether either side has the trust required to implement it, given Iran was already negotiating in good faith via Omani mediation before the war broke out. On the question of a US ground invasion, Shakarian uses D-Day as a comparison — Trump reportedly planned the operation with 5,000 troops versus the 160,000 at Normandy — and notes Iran's coastal geography is highly inhospitable. He argues both scenarios facing the US, withdrawal or full invasion, end in embarrassment, with invasion being worse. The discussion turns to Russia and Ukraine, where Shakarian says rising oil prices benefit Russia and US attention is increasingly redirected away from the Ukrainian front. He notes Ukraine is running out of manpower and a Russian spring offensive is anticipated, suggesting the Ukrainian front is in dire straits. On Armenia specifically, Shakarian describes Pashinyan's Moscow visit as reflecting all-time-low relations, with Putin publicly challenging him on the EU-Eurasian Union contradiction and Russian Deputy PM Overdchuk warning of a complete restructuring of the economic relationship. Shakarian notes Putin's warning about the Metsamor nuclear plant potentially closing five years early if Armenia rejects Russian nuclear expertise. Pashinyan returned and called the visit 'very successful,' which Shakarian finds implausible. Shakarian comments on Pashinyan wearing an Armenia-plus-Artsakh lapel pin only during the Putin meeting, interpreting it as a claim of independence from Russian influence. He criticizes Pashinyan's claim that there are no political prisoners in Armenia as laughable. The hosts discuss Armenian parliamentary elections two months away, noting Pashinyan's Civil Contract Party has been effectively campaigning for nine months. Shakarian argues the TRIP corridor is entirely frozen given Iran now controls Hormuz and would never allow a US military contractor a 99-year foothold in southern Armenia. He reframes the corridor as a US-Israeli strategic tool to position forces north of the Aras River, not a genuine Armenian security guarantee, echoing journalist James Carden's comment that it puts a target on Armenia's back.

As heard by us

A sharp geopolitics discussion that makes Armenia's choices the center of the story.

Pietro Shakarian and the Groong hosts use Iran as the frame for Armenia's strategic bind, tying Trump's pressure campaign to the South Caucasus, the Strait of Hormuz, and the corridor idea that keeps resurfacing in regional politics.

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You want a focused listen on Iran's war and what it is doing to Armenia and the Caucasus.

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