Dolphins Fantasy Football Breakdown | 'Upper Hand Fantasy'

·11 min·1 clip

Faraz from Upper Hand Fantasy asks if Tyreek Hill can bounce back after his target share plummeted to 33rd among wide receivers.

The episode begins with Faraz introducing the Upper Hand Fantasy Podcast and its focus on data-driven fantasy football strategy. He sets the context by noting the Dolphins' offensive shift last season from deep threats like Tyreek Hill and Jalen Waddle to shorter targets for Devon Achane and Janu Smith. Faraz poses several questions about the offense, including Tyreek Hill's potential recovery, Tua Tagovailoa's health, and the coaching scheme's limitations. He delves into Tyreek Hill's statistics, showing his first-read target share dropped from 38.5% to 23.9%, ranking 33rd among qualifying wide receivers. Faraz discusses factors like Tua's quick release time of 2.21 seconds and offensive line issues, suggesting improvements could benefit Hill. He highlights Hill's efficiency metrics, such as ranking 10th in first downs per route run and 8th in ESPN's open score, indicating underlying value. Faraz recommends drafting Hill in the third round, comparing his ADP to players like Marvin Harrison Jr. and Terry McLaurin. The analysis shifts to Jalen Waddle, noting his 17% target share and boom-bust weekly finishes, with only three top-24 weeks last season. Faraz references a tweet from Fantasy Points' Ryan Heath listing Waddle among wide receivers with multiple top-five yards per route run finishes since 2021. He examines Janu Smith's role as tight end, cautioning against his high ADP given the offense's other playmakers. Faraz mentions Tua's offseason focus on quicker throws, which could impact the offensive distribution. He dismisses Tua as a fantasy QB due to lack of rushing upside, preferring Bryce Young or Matthew Stafford. The episode concludes with a deep dive on Devon Achane, revealing he averaged 22.4 fantasy points per game with Tua, a pace that would have made him the overall RB1, and recommends drafting him as RB7.

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