AM Best’s Briefing – Global Reinsurance: January 1 Renewals and 2026 Market Outlook Updates

·53 min·5 clips

Why did AM Best downgrade the global reinsurance outlook after three strong years?

This AM Best briefing features a panel discussion on the global reinsurance market, hosted by John Weber. Greg, an AM Best analyst, opens by detailing the revision of the global reinsurance outlook from positive to stable, citing property cat rate decreases of 10-20% at the January 1 renewals as a key factor. He explains that the positive outlook, initiated in June 2024, was driven by a market reset in 2023 with rate increases up to 25%, but recent softening has led to the change. Greg notes that despite this, terms and conditions remain durable, and the market is disciplined overall. He highlights challenges like social inflation, litigation abuse, and climate risk. The panel includes Aditya Dutt, President of Elis Capital Management, who provides an ILS investor perspective, emphasizing measured capital responses and the health of the market. Renaud Gaudet, CEO of AXA, discusses reinsurer strategies, innovation, and client partnerships, including AXA's research collaboration with Cambridge University. Topics covered include regional performance divergences, with U.S. property cat benefiting from favorable conditions, while casualty lines face pressures. Capital adequacy is addressed, with record high traditional and third-party capital levels noted. The discussion explores macroeconomic factors like interest rates and geopolitical risks, with Greg noting reinsurers' adaptability. Aditya talks about nontraditional risks like cyber and casualty, and hurdles to alternative capital in longer-tail risks. Renaud emphasizes innovation in analytics and risk transfer structures. Underwriting discipline is examined, with Greg observing early signs like multi-year treaties but overall maintained discipline. Aditya points to claims payment trends and capital return as confidence indicators. The episode concludes with outlooks for 2026, focusing on pricing trends, capital management, and casualty reserve volatility.

As heard by us

A measured briefing on reinsurance pricing, capital discipline, and casualty reserve volatility in the 2026 outlook.

AM Best's briefing reads the global reinsurance market after the January 1 renewals, framing the 2026 outlook as a shift from hardening conditions toward steadier ground.

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Why you'd press play

You want a sober read on January 1 renewals, reinsurance pricing, and the capital questions shaping 2026?

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