Alberta Election Podcast · Alberta Election Podcast

Episode 7 - The Election Prediction Episode.

May 26, 2023·45 min·4 clips

Omar describes a mind-blowing lawn sign with a photo of a lawn sign on a lawn sign, sparking a surreal election moment.

Hosts Omar Masood and Vincent St-Pierre analyze the final days of the Alberta election, focusing on advanced voting trends and key battleground ridings. They are experienced political observers who provide an insider's perspective on campaign strategies. This episode serves as their penultimate prediction show before election day. Advanced polling saw over 300,000 votes cast in just the first few days, a record-shattering pace compared to the roughly 700,000 total advanced votes in the 2019 election. Both the NDP and UCP are strategically encouraging early voting, but for different reasons related to managing campaign resources and controlling the news cycle. The high advanced turnout effectively compresses the active campaign period, changing how parties deploy their messaging and ground teams. On election day itself, campaigns focus on get-out-the-vote operations using scrutineers at polling stations and door-knocking based on "bingo sheets" of identified supporters. Candidates often spend election day relaxing or thanking volunteers, as there is little they can strategically change at that point. One surprising insight is that a candidate's vile remarks about children could create a scenario where an independent, Jennifer Johnson in Lacombe-Ponoka, holds the balance of power in a hypothetical 43-43 seat tie. The hosts note the electoral system's inherent advantage for rural areas, where the UCP could form a majority government even while losing the popular vote and half of Calgary's seats. They highlight specific efforts, like NDP candidate Najwan Al-Guneid in Calgary-Glenmore personally signing up hundreds of new party members in a traditionally conservative riding. The episode also mentions how Danielle Smith's past comments comparing vaccinated Albertans to followers of Hitler may uniquely impact the Jewish community in certain Calgary constituencies. The tone is conversational and analytical, blending personal anecdotes with tactical election analysis. The style is informal and insider-focused, drawing on the hosts' own campaign experiences. This episode is ideal for political junkies and Albertans seeking a detailed, ground-level view of the election's final stretch. Listeners looking for broad, high-level national commentary or definitive poll-based forecasts might find it too granular.

As heard by us

A grounded look at election-day logistics, candidate routines, and how campaigns prepare for different outcomes.

Episode 7 treats the run-up to election day as a practical, on-the-ground look at signs, volunteer logistics, candidate routines, and the narrow space left before the vote.

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Why you'd press play

For the last stretch before Alberta election day, this gives you a candid look at the final-day campaign routine, the lawn signs, and the election-night prep.

Read the full recommendation in PlayNext →

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