Al minuto con Protección · Protección SA

EP. 759 - Tasas de interés, inflación y salario mínimo de 2026 ¿estabilidad o señales de alerta?

·27 min·2 clips

Julián describes 2025 as a 'positive' transition year for the global economy, despite persistent inflation.

The episode begins with host Mónica welcoming guest Julián and asking him to summarize the global economy in one word for 2025, to which he responds 'positive' but notes it was a year of transition. Julián explains that growth moderated due to trade tensions and interest rate expectations, but recession was avoided thanks to consumption and AI investment. Inflation remains a protagonist, trending downward since COVID but still above targets in developed economies, prolonging debates on monetary policy. The discussion delves into inflation as a key indicator for central banks, with Julián using a medical analogy: inflation is like the economy's temperature, where high levels signal imbalance. He details that goods prices have fallen post-COVID due to normalized supply chains, while services remain resistant due to wage adjustments. The concept of core inflation is explained as excluding volatile components like food and energy to see underlying price trends. The focus then shifts to Colombia, which shares global trends but has particularities. Colombian inflation hit a peak above 13% post-COVID, fell below 5% in 2025, but has since risen again, with pressures from demand. The ideal inflation target for Colombia is 2-4%, but 2025 is expected to close near 5.25%, and 2026 projections are 4-4.5%, with convergence to 3% being slow. A major factor is the minimum wage adjustment for 2026, which is technically based on inflation plus productivity growth. Julián calculates this as 6.4-6.5% using current data, but warns that increases above this, such as 12%, could add inflationary pressure. He notes the minimum wage impacts over 40% of labor contracts and indexes services like rents and transport, amplifying costs. The Banco de la República estimates each percentage point above the technical level adds 15 basis points to inflation over 12 months. The episode concludes with outlooks for 2026, where inflation is expected to remain high, and interest rates could rise 75-125 basis points to counter pressures from wages and fiscal spending, with cuts unlikely until 2027.

Listen to the show on

Apple Podcasts Spotify

Play clips from this episode More from Al minuto con Protección